Press translations [Japan]. Economic Series 0110, 1945-12-28.
Date28 December, 1945
RepositoryRauner Special Collections Library, Dartmouth College.
Call Numbereconomic-0542
Call NumberDS801 .S81
Persistent Identifier
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ECONOMIC SERIES: 110
ITEM 1 Actual Situation of Food Crisis. The Staple Food Program of the Agriculture
and Forestry Ministry
Requires Re-investigation - Nippon Sangyo Keizai - 25 Dec 45. Translator: T. Okamura.
Summary:
The actual food situation of JAPAN for 1945 does not permit an optimistic forecast
since the current year's harvest is said to
be the worst in the last four decades. Though the Government forecasts that the food
crisis will reach its peak by next May,
it is doubtful whether or not the Government can maintain the present food ration
until that time. The rice offered for public
consumption by farmers throughout the country was said to be on 10 December an average
of only 1.1 per cent which indicates
the lowest contribution of rice yet. Most large towns have enough stocks of staple
foods to last for only several days, and
when the new year comes, many such towns will be confronted with a major crisis, unless
urgent and adequate measures for
distribution are taken by the authorities. In this connection, it has become imperative
that the food program drown up by the
Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry be minutely investigated again. It is generally
anticipated that the food situation will
be most crucial by next February if the present supply and demand basis is maintained.
The estimates of the demand and supply of staple foods made by the Ministry follows:
Estimated supplies comprise 2,500,000
koku of rice to be carried over from the preceding year; 40,170,000 koku of rice yielded
for l945; 2,800,000 koku of rice
production anticipated in 1946; 7,500,000 koku of wheat and barley; 3,670,000 koku
of potatoes (staple products other than
rice are all measured as rice); 1,000,000 koku of edibles which have thus far not
been utilized as food; and 1,650,000 koku of
other cereals, aggregating 59,290,000 koku.
Anticipated demands are, 22,000,000 koku for peasant consumption, 51,810,000 koku
for consumption by the general public;
650,000 koku for the manufacture of sake; and 1,050,000 koku for the manufacture of
MISO and similar foods; and 2,500, 000
koku to be carried over to the following year, aggregating 73,010,000 koku. Thus,
there is an adverse balance of 13,720,000
koku or 3,120,000 tons.
The 2,500,000 koku of rice to be carried forward from the preceding year consists
of 750,000 koku of old rice owned by the
Government, and a similar amount owned by the Staple Foods Association (SHOKURYO EIDAN),
and 1,000,000 koku of stock owned by
farmers, according to the estimate of 31 October 1945 The first crop forecast gave
the estimated
ECONOMIC SERIES: 110 (Continued)
ITEM 1 (Continued)
rice production for the 1945 harvest at 46,610,000 koku, showing a sharp decline
of l4,135,000 koku or 25 per cent, in
comparison with the average rice production of the last five years, which was 67,450,000
koku. The estimated crop, too, due to
much rain, and inclement weather, is now expected to decline by 3,600,000 koku, which
is but 30 per cent of the average year
crop. Thus, the total rice production available for general consumption in the new
harvest year will be 40,170,000 koku.
The 7,500,000 koku of barley and wheat estimated to be available for general consumption
consists of 1,500,000 koku produced
in 1945, and 6,000,000 koku expected to be produced in the new crop year. It is anticipated
that the wheat and barley crop
will reach an average annual production mark of 20 million koku, if adequate measures
for planting are taken at the proper
time; even if the shortage of good fertilizer is taken into consideration here. Of
this total, half was usually alloted to the
farmers, but this year the Government fixed the amount at 8,600,000 koku, and the
remaining 11,400,000 koku will be bought by
the Government. Most of these products are to be used in the manufacture of MISO,
soysauce, beer, and medicines while some
will be used as fodder or seeds. The Government will begin to purchase the wheat crop
from farmers in June, and in the month
of August wheat will be sown. It is therefore anticipated that these products will
be distributed among the public from August
on. However, it is doubted whether or not the Government can collect a minimum of
6,000,000 koku after next July.
The Agriculture and Forestry Ministry at first estimated the production of sweet
potatoes at 4,200,000 koku, but, because of
the climate and the excessive number of purchases, the Ministry was compelled to change
the figure to 3,670,000 koku. The
Government estimates the amount of sweet potatoes to be collected after November 1945
at 500 million Kan, of which 270 million
kan will be distributed as s taple food, 230 million kan will be used in the manufacture
of alcohol, sake, MISO, and starch.
Potatoes to be produced during the new crop year of 1946 are estimated at 800,000
koku or 144 million kan, and these products
will be distributed among individual households from next May on. One million koku
of edibles other than cereals and potatoes,
which the Government plans to produce, in abundance will be made from sediments of
starch, vines and leaves of the potato
plant, and mulberry trees, nuts and seaweeds.
The government anticipates the production of cereals other than rice, barley and
wheat, at 1,650,000 koku. This will be
employed by the agrarian classes for their own consumption. The Government, which
has never collected them for general
consumption, will not request farmers to offer them this year. The 22 million koku
of rice which the Government appropriated
for the consumption of agrarian classes includes one million koku to be utilized as
seeds for next year, and sets individual
rice consumption at two GO per day or 750 GO per year.
The number of farmers including ex-servicemen and discharged factory laborers who
have returned to their homes plus totals
29,555,000. An additional 8,550,000 koku is calculated for distribution among such
classes, making an annual consumption at
one koku per person. The 51,810,000 koku of rice calculated for the general consumption
is assigned on the basis of 2.1 go
rice ration per day per person. The
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ECONOMIC SERIES: 110 (Continued)
ITEM 1 (Continued)
estimated number of these consumers by 1 May next year will be 46,932,000. This amount
includes 2,060,000 koku and 8,550,000
koku assigned for emergency distribution and special distribution, respectively, among
those farmers who have not produced
enough to feed themselves.
In 1937 and 1938, the Government appropriated some four million koku of rice for
brewery purposes and it authorized 850,000
koku last year for that purpose. The Government has decided to use 650,000 koku of
rice for the same purpose this year. Of the
1,050,000 koku which the Government originally estimated for the manufacture of MISO
and other Japanese foods, only 550,000
koku will be used in the manufacture of MISO. 500,000 koku will be used by repatriated
servicemen and civilians, as well as by
those discharged men in various territories and islands who are waiting for shipping
to take them home. Rice amounting to
2,500,000 koku to be carried over to the next crop year will consist partly of the
rice brought forward from the preceding
year. A minimum amount of rice which the Government will set aside as reserve stock,
will be carried over from the new harvest
of this year. 18,720,000 koku or 3,120,000 tons which the Government estimates as
a shortage for the new harvest year, is
nothing but a desk-plan figure. It is doubtful whether or not the estimated amount
of rice will be distributed among the
people, since it is not an easy task to conduct smooth production and distribution.
Of this governmental program, only rice,
sweet potatoes, starch and other edibles produced during the current year are sure
to be distributed for general consumption
by next May. Since other staple products are obtainable for the most part after the
month of May, there is a possibility of a
food crisis.
The fact that the total amount of rice offered by farmers in the first ten days of
December was only 11 per cent of the
estimated rice harvest total, clearly shows the breaking up of governmental control
and the remarkable decline of the zeal of
farmers in their assigned contribution of products. The dreadful effects which will
result will be most disasterous. The
percentage of rice contributed by the peasant classes up to the 10 December 1945,
compared with the contributions in 1943 and
1944 was as follows:
First 10 days of December | Second 10 days of December | Last 10 days of December | |
1943 | 30 per cent | 41 per cent | 64 per cent |
1944 | 26 per cent | 33 per cent | 42 per cent |
1945 | 11 per cent | ——- | ——- |
Since information concerning available rice after 10 December 1945 is not available,
we cannot forecast the real situation for
the current year. Investigating rice production figures throughout the country, we
find that only two prefectures, NIIGATA and
ISHIKAWA have filled half of their allotted assignments. The contributions of rice
from the HOKKAIDO and KANTO Districts are
said to be the worst, followed by the TOHOKU District. Such scanty contributions are
mainly attributed to the lateness of the
harvest season, and to the delay in assigning amounts to be contributed. A one month
delay in harvesting this year was due to
late planting, because of unfavorable weather throughout the country. The delay in
assigning rice-production allotments, which
was not done until early November, discouraged the peasants.
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ECONOMIC SERIES: 110 (Continued)
ITEM 1 (Continued)
In normal times, at the end of the year and during the early part of January, the
delivery of rice by farmers is negligible.
To make matters worse, recent adverse transportation conditions have aggravated the
situation. It is, therefore, advisable
that those large towns far away from rice producing districts collect the products
within the current year which are suitable
for distribution by the middle of January. It is also necessary that the Government
collect at least 4,500,000 to 5,000,000
koku of rice throughout the country within the remaining days of 1945.
ITEM 2 A Steel and Coal Crisis - Mainichi Shimbun - 25 Dec 45. Translator: J. Kitagawa.
Summary:
The long predicted iron shortage has reached a critical point. Iron and steel production
dropped to two and one tenth per cent
of that thriving days, with almost no hope of further production. On the other hand,
we are in urgent need of iron and steel
for repairs of railways and communications, shipbuilding, farm-implements, coal mines,
and many other things. The solution of
the coal shortage problem will solve the iron problem. If the coal shortage is not
remedied, the iron industry will have to
cease production completely.
The Commerce and Industry Ministry estimated the country's requirements for steel
as four and a quarter million tons. Still,
there are complaints about Ambassador PAULEY'S estimate of 2.5 million tons as JAPAN'S
minimum iron and steel requirements.
The output of iron and steel for the past five years is shown in the following table:
Output of Iron (Unit, 1000 metric tons) |
Monthly Average (Unit, 1000 metric tons) | |
1941 | 4,087 | 357 |
1942 | 4,042 | 353 |
1943 | 3,892 | 324 |
1944 | 3,059 | 254 |
1945 | 910 | 75 |
Monthly output 1945 (Unit, 1000 metric tons)
January | 180 |
February | 148 |
March | 142 |
April | 123 |
May | 111 |
June | 99 |
July | 54 |
August | 15 |
September | 9 |
October | 9 |
November | 7 |
December (estimate) | 8 |
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ECONOMIC SERIES: 110 (Continued)
ITEM 2 (Continued)
Steel Output (Unit, 1000 metric tons)
Monthly Average | ||
1941 | 4,242 | 353 |
1942 | 4,018 | 334 |
1943 | 4,112 | 342 |
1944 | 3,233 | 269 |
1945 | 725 | 60 |
Monthly Output of Steel (Unit, 1000 metric tons)
January | 179 |
February | 122 |
March | 117 |
April | 99 |
May | 73 |
June | 64 |
July | 44 |
August | 5 |
September | 3 |
October | 3 |
November | 6 |
December (estimate) | 6 |
As is shown in the tables, the production of iron and steel has been on the down-grade
since the end of last year and has gone
still lower following the end of the war. Major cause for this deplorable situation
is scanty supply of coal and
minerals.
Supply of Iron Ore in the past Five Years (Unit, 1000 metric tons)
Native Supply | Supply from Overseas |
Total | |
1941 | 1,268 | 5,058 | 6,326 |
1942 | 2,059 | 4,880 | 6,939 |
1943 | 2,052 | 3,666 | 6,168 |
1944 | 2,672 | 1,668 | 4,340 |
1945 | 702 | 145 | 847 |
Note: The figure for this year represents output during the first quarter. Since
1943, import of iron ore of high quality was
interrupted by the loss of ships.
Coal ration for iron industry is shown in the following table: (Unit, 1000 metric
tons)
1941 | 12,034 | |
1942 | 12,159 | |
1943 | 12,084 | |
1944 | 9,831 | |
1945 | 3,974 | (Represents the first three quarters) |
The coal ration of the third and fourth quarters of this year for steel production
is an extremely low figure on account of
hurricanes and transportation of repatriates. Large plants such as YAWATA, NIHON SMITETSU
and others have been supplied with
hardly enough coal to keep coal furnaces warm. 15 out of 25 leading plants were forced
to discontinue their production. It is
anticipated that in January, YAWATA wall be the only plant supplied with coal, and
this amount will be only 20,000 tons. In
the steel production program, figure for the third quarter of 1945 was 70,000 tons,
while the actual figure was cut by
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ECONOMIC SERIES: 110 (Continued)
ITEM 2 (Continued)
80 per cent; that is, the output will be around 16,000 tons. Adding stock of the
steel apportioned for third quarter
consumption which amounted to 80,000 tons making a total of 96,000 tons in all.
Total steel stocks held in the country is 870,000 tons, but that figure for steel
stocks is found on paper, while the actual
quantity remains to be worked out. Moreover, shipping difficulties and adaptability
of material for peacetime production
requires investigation. Of the 870,000 tons of steel stocks, the 145,000 tons which
were allotted for civilian consumption
have been used, and of the remaining 725,000 tons which belonged to the Japanese armed
forces, 180,000 became the property of
the Commerce and Industry Ministry and 545,000 tons, the property of the Ministry
of Home Affairs'. The Commerce and Industry
Ministry will distribute 60,000 tons of steel during January 1946 and the Ministry
of Home Affairs will distribute what it has
in February or March.
Coke furnaces must be protected from cracking at any cost and more should be ready
for production. Coal should be distributed
in order to effect 100 per cent operation of steel plants. Utilization of 115,000
tons of steel stocks formerly allotted to
the aircraft industry, and restriction of resale by those who are entitled to steel
distribution will facilitate efficient
production.
DISTRIBUTION "X"
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